Integrated Spatial Analysis of Forest Fire Susceptibility in the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH) Using Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Fuzzy AHP Approach
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Date
2023-09
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Abstract
Forest fires have significant impacts on economies, cultures, and ecologies worldwide.
Developing predictive models for forest fire probability is crucial for preventing and managing
these fires. Such models contribute to reducing losses and the frequency of forest fires by informing
prevention efforts effectively. The objective of this study was to assess and map the forest fire
susceptibility (FFS) in the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH) region by employing a GIS-based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy-AHP) technique, and to evaluate the FFS based on forest type and
at district level in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Seventeen
potential indicators were chosen for the vulnerability assessment of the IWH region to forest fires.
These indicators encompassed physiographic factors, meteorological factors, and anthropogenic
factors that significantly affect the susceptibility to fire in the region. The significant factors in FFS
mapping included FCR, temperature, and distance to settlement. An FFS zone map of the IWH
region was generated and classified into five categories of very low, low, medium, high, and very
high FFS. The analysis of FFS based on the forest type revealed that tropical moist deciduous forests
have a significant vulnerability to forest fire, with 86.85% of its total area having very high FFS. At
the district level, FFS was found to be high in sixteen districts and very high in seventeen districts,
constituting 25.7% and 22.6% of the area of the IWH region. Particularly, Lahul and Spiti had 63.9% of
their total area designated as having very low FSS, making it the district least vulnerable to forest fires,
while Udham Singh Nagar had a high vulnerability with approximately 86% of its area classified as
having very high FFS. ROC-AUC analysis, which provided an appreciable accuracy of 79.9%, was
used to assess the validity of the FFS map produced in the present study. Incorporating the FFS map
into sustainable development planning will assist in devising a holistic strategy that harmonizes
environmental conservation, community safety, and economic advancement. This approach can
empower decision makers and relevant stakeholders to take more proactive and informed actions,
promoting resilience and enhancing long-term well-being.